Playing our cards right: what games can teach us about mitigating climate risks
Every time I visit my parents, we have this tradition of playing a card game. It's 'Wizard,' but we affectionately call it 'Wiffzack' because that's how my dad pronounces wizard in his charming non-English-speaking way.
The game is straightforward yet intriguing. The number of cards each player is dealt with increases each round, ranging from one to a maximum of twenty. For each game, you predict how many points you'll make. If your prediction is spot-on, you gain points; if not, you lose points.
What adds a layer of complexity and excitement to Wizard is the rising unpredictability. As the number of cards or players grows, you must consider an expanding array of variables. The game essentially serves as an exercise in strategic foresight. It reveals how predicting the future is impossible and allows us to understand that while we can't control the game's outcome fully, we can employ different strategies to influence the outcome like aggressive or defensive play.
One thing that stands out in this game is how the distribution of resources often determines a positive outcome for all players. How does this factor manifest in Wizard? Let me give you an example:
Let's say you're given eight cards, which means the maximum number of points achievable is eight. Now, if I predict 3 points, my mum goes for 4, and dad sticks with 2, we predict one point more than possible. This discrepancy invariably leads to a heated round as everyone scrambles to secure their predicted points.
However, if our predictions are more balanced—say, I'm going for 3, mum for 3, and dad sticks with 2 - totalling 8 points for eight cards—the group dynamics alter. The game becomes less competitive and more cooperative. It transforms into an exchange rather than a contest.
So, how does this card game relate to our looming planetary crisis?
The World Economic Forum's Global Risk Report 2023 cautions against an impending polycrisis. The report explores some of the most severe risks we may face over the next decade and pinpoints two decisive factors that will shape our future scenarios:
Rapid action on climate change
Global cooperation over limited resources, like water, critical metals and minerals.
The more we can collaborate across nations, organisations, and individuals to address resource scarcity, devising an equitable distribution of solutions, the better we can avert tipping points and shape a positive, inclusive, and stable future.
While climate action receives its fair share of attention, global cooperation, the second factor, often remains in the shadows. To mitigate a polycrisis, we need to shift from a culture of individualism to one that fosters collective thinking. Simple to say, hard to put into practice. For centuries, we have been trained in individualism, not collaborative thinking. This looming poly-crisis stems from the fact that we consider ourselves separate rather than part of the same.
“We will get out of this all of us together, or none of us at all”
Therefore, the question we should ask more often and design for is: How might we promote a culture of collaboration within our organisations, local communities, and nations so we don't revert to competition and confrontation when faced with adversity?
Playing games like Wizard is a modest but practical step towards sparking conversations around the power of cooperation.
Other game-based tools to explore the impacts of climate risks
There are also more specialised tools being developed. For instance, the Doughnut Economics Action Lab and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre are developing a game to understand the cascading effects of climate shocks on households, markets, states, and commons. This game fosters system thinking and helps identify risks of resource competition or control to mitigate inequalities and enhance resilience. It has yet to be launched, but I had the chance to participate in a co-creation session to experience the power of this tool in thinking through various scenarios and their impact. I’ll keep you posted with news about this tool.
The model, the Doughnut Economics Action Lab and the Red Cross Climate Centre, are developing to explore the cascading effects of climate risks.
In the meantime, I invite us to reflect on the level of cooperation around resources we experience in our personal and work lives.
- Are we considering resources as a collective good, or are we naturally thinking about our personal ability to access those resources?
- In our organisations, is there cooperation and collaboration between departments, or are we incentivised to compete even though we are part of the same business?
If not, maybe it’s time for a round of Wizard, of ‘Wiffzack’, however you might call it. :)
Whenever you are ready and need more support in exploring the impacts of the climate crisis on your organisation reach out for a conversation.
